[ { "episode_id": "E21", "country": "Mali", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2021-09", "selection_role": "high_information_extreme", "event_title": "Blocked Mali aircraft export license provokes criticism alongside US-supported training", "anchor_date": null, "anchor_month": null, "date_status": "onset_unresolved_preexisting", "its_event_identifiable": false, "interpretation_limit": "The export-license blockage predates the September peak and appears in August reporting. September editorials and training are distinct events; no defensible single onset is assigned.", "reported_chronology": [ "2021-08-16 to 2021-08-20: Malian minister raises pre-existing aircraft blockage in Washington", "2021-09-20 to 2021-09-21: critical commentaries circulate", "2021-09-29: instructor-training closing ceremony, reported September 30" ], "date_sources": [], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E24", "country": "Angola", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2026-06", "selection_role": "high_information_extreme", "event_title": "Angola–Ohio National Guard partnership activation and AFRICOM conference", "anchor_date": "2026-06-29", "anchor_month": "2026-06", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Late-June partnership activation; April letter of intent is a prior stage. No full post-event month exists before the panel ends in June 2026.", "reported_chronology": [ "2026-06-29: military partnership signature in Luanda", "2026-06-30 to 2026-07-01: conference coverage" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.army.mil/article-amp/293773/angola_ohio_national_guard_strengthen_enduring_partnership_through_the_state_partnership_program_before_achod_2026", "supports": "June 29 military activation; April 2026 letter of intent is a separate milestone" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E34", "country": "Ukraine", "topic": "foreign_aid", "selected_month": "2025-01", "selection_role": "global_illustrative_supplement", "event_title": "January 2025 foreign-aid pause: anticipation, stop-work notices and local consequences", "anchor_date": "2025-01-20", "anchor_month": "2025-01", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Aid-pause announcement and January 24 implementation are one January policy sequence; monthly data cannot separate their effects.", "reported_chronology": [ { "date": "2025-01-20", "event": "Executive order pauses foreign development assistance; primary source verified" }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "event": "USAID implementing-partner notice requires immediate stop-work action; verified primary bulletin" }, { "date": "2025-01-26", "event": "Ukraine USAID stop-work reporting and Veteran Hub closure claim" }, { "date": "2025-01-30", "event": "Kyiv Independent announces local-media fundraiser" } ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-202500136/html/DCPD-202500136.htm", "title": "Executive Order 14169, official presidential document", "date": "2025-01-20", "supports": "Pauses new obligations and disbursements of foreign development assistance pending review, with waiver authority.", "source_type": "primary" }, { "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USAIDHQ/bulletins/3ceb15a", "title": "USAID notice to contracting officers and implementing partners", "date": "2025-01-24", "supports": "Orders stop-work, amendments or suspension of existing awards and pauses new obligations; separate implementation milestone from January 20 order.", "source_type": "primary" }, { "url": "https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/pressreleaseandstatementarchive/2025/january/20250129_us-waiver", "title": "UNAIDS statement welcoming emergency humanitarian waiver", "date": "2025-01-29", "supports": "Confirms waiver approval by January 29 and describes continuation of life-saving treatment. It does not independently prove funds resumed or establish the January 28 signature date.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E35", "country": "India", "topic": "foreign_policy", "selected_month": "2016-11", "selection_role": "global_illustrative_supplement", "event_title": "Trump election expectations and reassurance about India–US ties", "anchor_date": "2016-11-08", "anchor_month": "2016-11", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Election information event, not inauguration or demonstrated administration performance. Inauguration follows in January 2017.", "reported_chronology": [ "2016-11-08", "2016-11-09", "2016-11-11" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/general-election-november-8-2016", "supports": "Official state election results identify November 8,2016 election date.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E36", "country": "Egypt", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2014-12", "selection_role": "global_illustrative_supplement", "event_title": "CIA torture report release and international reactions dominate a mixed Egyptian defense month", "anchor_date": "2014-12-09", "anchor_month": "2014-12", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "CIA report release is an information shock about earlier conduct; Egyptian aid rules and regional defense news also change.", "reported_chronology": [ "2014-12-09: Senate report released", "2014-12-10 to 2014-12-12: reactions and defenses reported", "2014-12-17: Egypt aid-rule flexibility reported" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/2014/12/09/press-committee-releases-study-cias-detention-and-interrogation-program/", "supports": "December 9, 2014 report release" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E37", "country": "Liberia", "topic": "foreign_aid", "selected_month": "2025-02", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "USAID freeze and project cancellations replace funding/launch coverage with loss, adaptation and accountability debate", "anchor_date": "2025-01-20", "anchor_month": "2025-01", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Use the January official onset for time-series analysis, although the selected trough is February. February cancellation and local consequences are subsequent stages.", "reported_chronology": [ { "date": "2024-11-13", "event": "USAID-Liberia funding amendments announcement", "basis": "two sampled news accounts" }, { "date": "2025-01-20", "event": "US executive order pausing foreign development assistance", "basis": "Verified official Executive Order 14169" }, { "date": "2025-02-10", "event": "Musk announces cancellation of Liberia tax-advice project", "basis": "multiple sampled accounts" }, { "date": "2025-02-16", "event": "MRISS adaptation press release", "basis": "sampled publication explicitly dates source release" } ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-202500136/html/DCPD-202500136.htm", "title": "Executive Order 14169, official presidential document", "date": "2025-01-20", "supports": "Pauses new obligations and disbursements of foreign development assistance pending review, with waiver authority.", "source_type": "primary" }, { "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USAIDHQ/bulletins/3ceb15a", "title": "USAID notice to contracting officers and implementing partners", "date": "2025-01-24", "supports": "Orders stop-work, amendments or suspension of existing awards and pauses new obligations; separate implementation milestone from January 20 order.", "source_type": "primary" }, { "url": "https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/pressreleaseandstatementarchive/2025/january/20250129_us-waiver", "title": "UNAIDS statement welcoming emergency humanitarian waiver", "date": "2025-01-29", "supports": "Confirms waiver approval by January 29 and describes continuation of life-saving treatment. It does not independently prove funds resumed or establish the January 28 signature date.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E38", "country": "Ukraine", "topic": "foreign_aid", "selected_month": "2023-10", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "US congressional funding uncertainty and aid-package bargaining", "anchor_date": "2023-09-30", "anchor_month": "2023-09", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Temporary-funding law anchors the September/October bargaining sequence. October 20 supplemental request and October 25 Speaker election overlap; this is not one isolated aid withdrawal.", "reported_chronology": [ { "date": "2023-09-30", "event": "Temporary funding law enacted September 30 (CBO confirms enactment date); exclusion of new Ukraine aid is reported by sampled articles." }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "event": "White House supplemental request, verified from preserved primary fact sheet" }, { "date": "2023-10-25", "event": "Mike Johnson elected Speaker; independently verified against the House record." }, { "date": "2023-10-30", "event": "House Republicans introduce standalone Israel funding bill; article date attribution" } ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/fact-sheet-white-house-calls-congress-advance-critical-national-security-priorities", "title": "White House fact sheet preserved by American Presidency Project", "date": "2023-10-20", "supports": "Confirms national-security supplemental request combining Ukraine, Israel and other priorities; request is not enactment.", "source_type": "primary_document_republished" }, { "url": "https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house", "supports": "House record confirms election of Mike Johnson on October 25, 2023." }, { "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59638", "supports": "CBO identifies H.R.5860 as enacted September 30, 2023; this citation verifies the date, not the article-level interpretation of excluded Ukraine funding." } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E39", "country": "Ukraine", "topic": "foreign_aid", "selected_month": "2021-09", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Biden-Zelensky commitments, pandemic aid and Hoverla project launch dominate a positive month", "anchor_date": "2021-09-01", "anchor_month": "2021-09", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Biden-Zelensky summit anchors a bundle of September security/humanitarian commitments and later project launch. Afghanistan news and the later Russian invasion confound longer comparisons.", "reported_chronology": [ { "date": "2021-09-01", "event": "US-Ukraine summit joint commitments", "basis": "sample" }, { "date": "2021-09-27", "event": "USAID Hoverla launch", "basis": "sample" } ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-rozpochav-zustrich-z-prezidentom-ssha-dz-70501", "title": "Official Ukrainian presidency account of Biden-Zelensky meeting", "date": "2021-09-01", "supports": "Confirms the meeting and new $60m security package. Recipient presidential gratitude is an attributed official position.", "source_type": "primary" }, { "url": "https://2021-2025.state.gov/united-states-announces-humanitarian-assistance-for-ukraine/", "title": "State Department Ukraine humanitarian assistance announcement", "date": "2021-09-02", "supports": "Confirms more than $45m additional humanitarian assistance; distinguish this from the $60m security package.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E40", "country": "Uzbekistan", "topic": "foreign_aid", "selected_month": "2020-05", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "COVID-19 and Sardoba flood assistance announcements and handover", "anchor_date": null, "anchor_month": null, "date_status": "multiple_aid_events_no_verified_single_us_onset", "its_event_identifiable": false, "interpretation_limit": "May 1 dam collapse is verified, but the US aid pledge/handovers and pandemic announcements have separate reported dates. A single US aid intervention date is not independently established.", "reported_chronology": [ { "date": "2020-05-01", "event": "Sardoba dam failure, confirmed by Uzbekistan embassy account" }, { "date": "2020-05-08", "event": "Articles report $100,000 USAID disaster pledge" }, { "date": "2020-05-22", "event": "Articles report additional $3m COVID support" }, { "date": "2020-05-26", "event": "Articles report $2m regional migrant protection supplement" }, { "date": "2020-05-29", "event": "Articles report ambassador relief handover to Soglom Avlod Uchun" } ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.uzembassy.uk/news/443?language=en", "title": "Uzbekistan embassy account of Sardoba recovery", "date": "2020-05-01", "supports": "Explicitly dates the partial dam collapse to May 1; does not independently verify US aid announcement dates.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E41", "country": "Kyrgyzstan", "topic": "foreign_policy", "selected_month": "2015-07", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Askarov human-rights award dispute and termination of US–Kyrgyz cooperation agreement", "anchor_date": "2015-07-14", "anchor_month": "2015-07", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Award ceremony anchors the dispute; July termination decision and August effective termination are separate stages. October reengagement is an overlapping later event.", "reported_chronology": [ "2015-07-14", "2015-07-17", "2015-07-21", "2015-07-22" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/sca/ci/kg/releases/index.htm", "supports": "Archive lists July 14, 2015 human-rights award ceremony." }, { "url": "https://www.stateoig.gov/uploads/report/report_pdf_file/isp-i-17-13_1.pdf", "supports": "Official retrospective confirms 2015 termination in response to the award; reports effective termination in August, distinguishing decision/reporting from effective date." } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E42", "country": "Belarus", "topic": "foreign_policy", "selected_month": "2021-09", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Anti-US official rhetoric amid Belarusian repression and changing outlet composition", "anchor_date": null, "anchor_month": null, "date_status": "mixed_events_and_media_disruption", "its_event_identifiable": false, "interpretation_limit": "Anti-US rhetoric, prosecutions, migration and Afghanistan reporting mix with outlet repression. No single September US policy event is identifiable.", "reported_chronology": [ "2021-09-02", "2021-09-06", "2021-09-11", "2021-09-28" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://cpj.org/2021/07/belarusian-authorities-raid-news-outlets-detain-journalists-amid-nationwide-crackdown/amp/", "supports": "July 8, 2021 newsroom raids and blocking of Nasha Niva, based partly on CPJ interviews." }, { "url": "https://baj.media/en/aglyady-manitoringi/monitoring-report-2021/", "supports": "Journalists association monitoring documents the 2021 repression of Nasha Niva and other media." } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E43", "country": "Kyrgyzstan", "topic": "foreign_policy", "selected_month": "2015-10", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Diplomatic re-engagement: new US ambassador and Kerry visit to Bishkek", "anchor_date": "2015-10-31", "anchor_month": "2015-10", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Late-month Kerry visit; new-ambassador coverage occurs earlier in October. July dispute is in the preceding-three-month baseline, so rebound and new-visit coverage are inseparable at monthly resolution.", "reported_chronology": [ "2015-10-14", "2015-10-31" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/travels/secretary/kyrgyzstan", "supports": "Kerry in Bishkek October 31–November 1, 2015; embassy dedication and meetings." }, { "url": "https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/10/249040.htm", "supports": "October 31 joint press availability, including questions about the Askarov award dispute." } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E44", "country": "Kenya", "topic": "foreign_policy", "selected_month": "2024-05", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Ruto state visit: investment, education and strategic partnership announcements", "anchor_date": "2024-05-23", "anchor_month": "2024-05", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "State visit follows May 20 Atlanta trip; investment and security announcements are commitments rather than realized benefits. Kenya protests in June are a subsequent confounder.", "reported_chronology": [ "2024-05-20", "2024-05-21", "2024-05-23" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/visits/kenya", "supports": "State visit by President William Ruto on May 23, 2024." }, { "url": "https://www.president.go.ke/president-ruto-kenya-u-s-digital-ties-will-expand-opportunities/", "supports": "Kenyan presidency’s May 23 report of technology cooperation and praise for US resources." }, { "url": "https://2021-2025.state.gov/kenyan-president-rutos-visit-to-atlanta/", "supports": "Atlanta visit beginning May 20 followed by May 23 Washington state visit." } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E45", "country": "Serbia", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2020-01", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Soleimani killing, Iran escalation and disputes about US justification", "anchor_date": "2020-01-03", "anchor_month": "2020-01", "date_status": "verified_primary_timezone_noted", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "January 3 Baghdad strike; US Department of Defense statement is dated January 2 US time. Subsequent Iranian retaliation, regional news and pandemic disruption overlap.", "reported_chronology": [ "2020-01-03: killing reported", "2020-01-07 to 2020-01-10: legality and imminent-threat controversy" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/release/article/2049534/statement-by-the-department-of-defense/", "supports": "US Department of Defense January 2 statement acknowledges strike; Iraqi publication/event date is January 3. The source verifies US acknowledgment, not its contested justification.", "source_type": "primary" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E46", "country": "Turkey", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2014-12", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "CIA torture disclosure receives Turkish accountability framing, with translation and label failures", "anchor_date": "2014-12-09", "anchor_month": "2014-12", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Same CIA disclosure event as Egypt, with Turkish domestic accountability framing. Frozen/live membership differs and source translations contain identified false US relevance.", "reported_chronology": [ "2014-12-09: Senate report release", "2014-12-10 to 2014-12-13: Turkish reporting and reaction", "2014-12-26: Turkish torture-lawsuit story" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/2014/12/09/press-committee-releases-study-cias-detention-and-interrogation-program/", "supports": "December 9, 2014 report release" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E47", "country": "Philippines", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2014-04", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "EDCA agreement and Obama alliance assurances, alongside sovereignty criticism", "anchor_date": "2014-04-28", "anchor_month": "2014-04", "date_status": "verified_primary", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Late-April EDCA signature and Obama visit; negotiations already received coverage. Monthly estimates combine anticipation and agreement/visit news.", "reported_chronology": [ "2014-04-11: draft negotiation consensus", "2014-04-28: EDCA signature and Obama arrival", "2014-04-29: alliance assurance speech" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GOVPUB-S-PURL-gpo59210", "supports": "EDCA signed April 28, 2014" }, { "url": "https://pco.gov.ph/news-releases-state-visit-of-h-e-barack-obama-april-28-29-2014/", "supports": "Obama visit April 28-29 and April 29 alliance assurance" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." }, { "episode_id": "E48", "country": "Morocco", "topic": "military_and_dod", "selected_month": "2026-04", "selection_role": "high_volume_extreme", "event_title": "Morocco-US defense consultations and ceasefire reporting coexist with criticism of the Iran war", "anchor_date": "2026-04-14", "anchor_month": "2026-04", "date_status": "official_statement_republished", "its_event_identifiable": true, "interpretation_limit": "Defense consultations April 14–16 are reported in an official military communiqué republished by MAP/SNRT. Iran-war and ceasefire news coexist; only May/June full post months are observed.", "reported_chronology": [ "2026-04-08: ceasefire announcement reported", "2026-04-14 to 2026-04-16: defense-consultative meetings reported", "2026-04-16 to 2026-04-18: Moroccan bilateral coverage" ], "date_sources": [ { "url": "https://snrtnews.com/fr/article/une-importante-delegation-marocaine-en-visite-de-travail-aux-etats-unis-a-loccasion-de-la", "supports": "April 16 MAP/SNRT report reproduces Royal Armed Forces communiqué dating visit April 14–16.", "source_type": "official_statement_republished" } ], "ascertainment": "Episode chosen after inspecting outcome extremes and articles; external dates verify timing but do not make selection independent or inference confirmatory.", "administration_inference": "No administration-performance coefficient or policy-efficacy inference." } ]